Are Out-of-State Buyers Driving Southwest Montana’s Housing Market? The Data Says No.

Summary: According to the 2025 Big Sky Country MLS Buyer Migration Report, Montanans accounted for 75.13% of all residential purchases in Southwest Montana, totaling 2,353 out of 3,132 transactions.  Out-of-state migration remains part of the market, but the majority of housing demand continues to come from within the state. 

The Bottom Line: In Southwest Montana, Most Buyers Are Montanans

Here's the data that may surprise you, 75% of people who purchased a home in 2025 were Montanans.

Despite the national attention on transplants and remote workers fleeing urban centers for mountain towns like Bozeman, the overwhelming majority of residential real estate activity in Southwest Montana in 2025 was actually driven by people who already call Montana home. 

According to the Big Sky Country MLS Annual Buyer Migration Report, in 2025, Montanans purchased 2,353 homes out of 3,132 total residential sales, capturing 75.13% of the market.

That means three out of every four residential purchases in Southwest Montana were made by local buyers.

California and Colorado: Still Leading Out-of-State Buyers, But Declining

California and Colorado continue to represent the largest number of out-of-state buyers in Montana, but both are showing significant three-year declines.

California remains the #1 out-of-state origin in 2025 with 140 sales (4.47%). However, that’s down from 196 sales (5.77%) in 2022. Even as the top external market, California accounts for less than 5% of all real estate sales in southwest Montana.

Colorado held the #2 spot among out-of-state buyers with 64 transactions (2.04% of the market). However, this is down from 91 sales (2.68%) in 2022. Geographic proximity and cultural similarities continue to make Colorado a natural feeder state, but the overall volume has clearly declined.

The Market Is Becoming More Locally Driven

When you step back and look at the multi-year data, we can see a larger pattern:

Montana Buyers Are Gaining Share:

• 2022: 69.36% local buyers (2,354 sales)
• 2022: 71.64% local buyers (2,145 sales)
• 2024: 75.32% local buyers (2,255 sales)
• 2025: 75.13% local buyers (2,353 sales)

Despite a slight dip in total transaction volume from 2022's peak of 3,394 sales, Montana buyers have increased their market share by nearly 6 percentage points over three years. 

All Major Out-of-State Markets Are Declining

The pattern holds across the board: 

• California: Dropped from 5.77% (2022) to 4.47% (2025) - down 196 to 140 sales
• Colorado: Fell from 2.68% (2022) to 2.04% (2025) - down 91 to 64 sales
• Washington: Declined from 3.33% (2022) to 1.79% (2025) - down 113 to 56 sales

• Texas: Decreased from 1.97% (2022) to 1.28% (2025) - down 67 to 40 sales

   

While Washington edged out Texas for the #4 spot in 2025 (after Texas briefly held #4 in 2024), both states show significant three-year declines. The ranking shuffle between these two states is less important than the broader trend: every major out-of-state market is sending fewer buyers to Southwest Montana.

The data paints a clear picture: while out-of-state migration to Montana gets significant attention, the foundation of the Montana real estate market remains local. 

Data source: Big Sky Country MLS 2025 Buyer Migration Report, analyzing 3,132 residential sales transactions in Southwest Montana.